Scout Pricing and State Rebate Programs

[bakdraft8231]

wow a shit ton of speculation on all of these threads, you would think we would have more info by now, well I'll just have to drive my 1978SSII for now...about 1 yr since I put my$$$$ down...Lets Go Scout!!!

 

[Thavin4]

The best-selling EV pickup, the F-150 Lightning, has sold just under 100k units in the ~3.25 years since the first was delivered in 2022. Sales of Q4 2025 will probably bring that sum to 120-140k total sales. And it is built in a factory that was already configured to build F-150s.

I think that if Scout sells 20k units/year, they'll be doing really well.

That checks out with Rivian's 20K in the first year and 50K in the second year (I think?). If production begins "late 2027), that'd mean realistically delivery late 2028 for the luckiest of us... I don't want to wait that long!

 

[J Alynn]

That checks out with Rivian's 20K in the first year and 50K in the second year (I think?). If production begins "late 2027), that'd mean realistically delivery late 2028 for the luckiest of us... I don't want to wait that long!

Curious why you think the “luckiest”-presuming first to get theirs would be end of 2028 if they are starting in late 27? A year from now (end of 26) the plant theoretically will be complete. That gives them basically a year to start preproduction builds/tests,etc… so by late ‘27 they should be producing consumer vehicles and at that rate over 3 months-give or take should be ramping up to deliver 10-15K vehicles if they manage to refine their process during the end of first year of preproduction

 

[Thavin4]

Curious why you think the “luckiest”-presuming first to get theirs would be end of 2028 if they are starting in late 27? A year from now (end of 26) the plant theoretically will be complete. That gives them basically a year to start preproduction builds/tests,etc… so by late ‘27 they should be producing consumer vehicles and at that rate over 3 months-give or take should be ramping up to deliver 10-15K vehicles if they manage to refine their process during the end of first year of preproduction

I guess I am just going off their note that "production begins late 2027" and seeing how long it took other startups to get going, even after testing and pre-pro.

 

[SpaceEVDriver]

I guess I am just going off their note that "production begins late 2027" and seeing how long it took other startups to get going, even after testing and pre-pro.

My guess (total speculation loosely based on other new vehicle production in the first year):

If production begins in late 2027, we’ll see deliveries in the first quarter of 2028. They’ll produce ~2-5 thousand vehicles. Then they’ll shut down for a week or three to retool and reconfigure. They’ll ramp up for more vehicles per day. They’ll then deliver ~5 thousand vehicles in mid 2028. Then they’ll probably have to shut down again early Q3 2028 for a week or two. Then they’ll ramp up again. My guess is that maybe there will be 15k total vehicles produced in 2028.

 

[6-ScoutFamily]

My guess (total speculation loosely based on other new vehicle production in the first year):

If production begins in late 2027, we’ll see deliveries in the first quarter of 2028. They’ll produce ~2-5 thousand vehicles. Then they’ll shut down for a week or three to retool and reconfigure. They’ll ramp up for more vehicles per day. They’ll then deliver ~5 thousand vehicles in mid 2028. Then they’ll probably have to shut down again early Q3 2028 for a week or two. Then they’ll ramp up again. My guess is that maybe there will be 15k total vehicles produced in 2028.

Not sure I agree with that 15k number. They are building a factory that will eventually produce 200k units/year. There are 130k + reservation holders. Even if 75% drop out that’s still 32k+ units.

 

[J Alynn]

My guess (total speculation loosely based on other new vehicle production in the first year):

If production begins in late 2027, we’ll see deliveries in the first quarter of 2028. They’ll produce ~2-5 thousand vehicles. Then they’ll shut down for a week or three to retool and reconfigure. They’ll ramp up for more vehicles per day. They’ll then deliver ~5 thousand vehicles in mid 2028. Then they’ll probably have to shut down again early Q3 2028 for a week or two. Then they’ll ramp up again. My guess is that maybe there will be 15k total vehicles produced in 2028.

I see a build up to get to full swing but knowing VW engineers planned this manufacturing plant based on others I think the upswing will be larger. At full capacity of 16,666 per month (200k per year) I think 10k is manageable in a 3 month period if they are training prior,etc…. I think other start ups didn’t have the backing and knowledge of VW and to boot-it’s German engineering. My hunch is what other start ups did is what VW plans around and avoids or trains for it before they start the roll out. By no means do I see them getting up to speed immediately but based on capacity I’m staying positive with the early rates. Even Broncos produced well albeit the covid shortages which is what ultimately slowed them down

 

[cyure]

I see a build up to get to full swing but knowing VW engineers planned this manufacturing plant based on others I think the upswing will be larger. At full capacity of 16,666 per month (200k per year) I think 10k is manageable in a 3 month period if they are training prior,etc…. I think other start ups didn’t have the backing and knowledge of VW and to boot-it’s German engineering. My hunch is what other start ups did is what VW plans around and avoids or trains for it before they start the roll out. By no means do I see them getting up to speed immediately but based on capacity I’m staying positive with the early rates. Even Broncos produced well albeit the covid shortages which is what ultimately slowed them down

Let’s be positive!!!

 

[SpaceEVDriver]

It’s not so much about being pessimistic as it is looking at the cost of facing issues.

If you build 10k units and have to do a recall because one or more of the tools was miscalibrated, you have a 10k unit recall. If you build 50k units before you discover the miscalibration, the cost of the recall is 5x. If you build 100k units, it’s 10x.

If you build 10k units and only 30k of the reservations are converted to sales, you’ve limited your exposure to loss. If you build 100k units and only 30k of the reservations are converted, you have a far greater exposure to loss.

It’s not good policy to start off building a lot of units. There *will* be issues with the production line. There *will* be recalls. There will be work stoppages. It’s better to have that all happen in the first year or so while you’re building only a limited number of units at a time so all of those issues are far less costly than if you started off building at even close to full capacity.

Even new models from well-established manufacturers spin up at low production rate until they’ve figured out the issues. That’s just good business sense.

 

[R1TVT]

Burning-in production models in the wild with some very rigorous testing will be key to moving the ramp up. With less testing, the likelihood of needing to make adjustments / change processes / adjust parts will increase. The ramp is the ramp, that is going to take time - time on the line, time training people, time with new processes, time with new tools, SW and robots, time for deliveries, lots of safety, learning new equipment - certainly lots of kinks & hurdles to work through during the ramp. A slower "initial" ramp is not a bad thing necessarily, as it could lead to faster overall production ramp (over the long haul) - esp with an entirely new factory building AND an entirely new truck. The market also expects it, so there won't be a big penalty during ramp if the production numbers start slow - the key is showing steady production increases each quarter, and that there is demand after deliveries start (to keep the pipeline going). This is where the rubber hits the road with quality. First impressions with initial deliveries will drive that demand.

 

[SpaceEVDriver]

Burning-in production models in the wild with some very rigorous testing will be key to moving the ramp up and to the left. With less testing. the likelihood of needing to make adjustments / change processes / adjust parts will increase. The ramp is the ramp, that is going to take time - time on the line, time training people, time with new processes, time with new tools, SW and robots, time for deliveries, lots of safety, learning new equipment - certainly lots of kinks & hurdles to work through during the ramp. A slower "initial" ramp is not a bad thing necessarily, as it could lead to faster overall production ramp (over the long haul) - esp with an entirely new factory building AND an entirely new truck. The market also expects it, so there won't be a big penalty during ramp if the production numbers start slow - the key is showing steady production increases each quarter, and that there is demand after deliveries start (to keep the pipeline going). This is where the rubber hits the road with quality. First impressions with initial deliveries will drive that demand.

The phrase we use in my realm is “start slow to go fast.”

 

[david corey]

Regardless of any SNAFUs or unintended outcomes, I'm going nowhere.

 

[cyure]

Regardless of any SNAFUs or unintended outcomes, I'm going nowhere.

Same. I’m in it for the long haul.

 

[maynard]

The phrase we use in my realm is “start slow to go fast.”

In my world it's "Slow is steady and steady is fast..."

 

[cyure]

In my world it's "Slow is steady and steady is fast..."

I love that!

 

[david corey]

In my world it's "Slow is steady and steady is fast..."

That means we're still this topside of the grass and mobile

 

[david corey]

At least from the pics, Mayan Mist appears to be similar to the new Silo.