As a Rivian owner that went through the launch of their first trucks, enduring a Pandemic, labor & subsequent supply chain shortage, I have a very different perspective. I give the company a ton of credit for what they have endured, what they have built - particularly with the continued headwinds and a completely anti-environment / anti-EV administration. Their strategy included very early alignment with AMZN and an order for 100K delivery vans. I can tell you personally that inking that deal gave me a lot of confidence as an early reservation holder. Scout's alignment with Rivian also gives me confidence. There is no other company more perfectly suited to help Scout leapfrog into the truck and SUV market from a technology perspective. That was very smart, and allows Scout to stay more focussed on the "truck part", which we are all excited for.I really like Rivian but they've been on the rough end of a vehicle launch strategy for quite some time. Can't help but think what higher volumes, sooner could have done for their market share and stock price.
I also separate the RIVN stock price from RIVIAN (the company). I would love to see their stock price improve, and I believe it will starting with the next earnings release if the R2 numbers hold and they make more SW and Fleet announcements. The climate and market (in general) has been very harsh in many ways, to to say the least since their IPO, but keep in mind how many EV OEM's have floundered, failed or imploded around them. In the past 5 years, 400 smaller EV brands and startups have gone bankrupt. That alone is going to create a lot of pressure and skepticism around any company from the financial markets, no matter how good the company is:
Here are some of those more "notables" implosions, and the list goes on and on around the globe:
- Lordstown Motors
- Proterra
- Electric Last Mile Solutions (ELMS),
- Volta Trucks
- Arrival
- Fisker
- Nikola
- Canoo
- Lion Electric (school bus maker)
The problem you are stating with "higher volumes" is not something that is a magic bullet for any new entrant. If the company is new, it needs to establish itself and its identity, develop trust with buyers, prove new technology and support every vehicle sold. The vehicle launch strategy being taken by Scout is not much different than Rivian's for that reason. Scale comes with staying power, establishing credibility and then building upon a foundation of success. Crawl, walk, run makes a ton of sense, and if you can do it with a compelling vehicle that will allow the brand to re-establish itself, you will at least see higher margins per vehicle sold when starting the fly-wheel.
The key to Scout's success will be how efficiently they can leverage the investments in their staff, the factory, the tech and all of their learnings from this launch to reach strong margins on each vehicle, and then expand. Seeing where Scout can go with a more basic, rugged, fleet-oriented truck will be super interesting. There are a lot of aging applications for this in our country right now where an EV makes way more sense than ICE.