Will the Scout EREV be obsolete by the time it gets here in 2027/28?

[Logan]

I missed this thread the first time around.

I can't say that I haven't have similar thoughts. I know that SSB's are still not ready for prime time, and have been "a few years out" for years and years. But it really does seem like the consensus of the industry is that we're getting pretty close-ish. And it seems like ~2030 or so is about the timeframe that everyone has been talking for their first appearances, with mainstream adoption a few years after that most likely.

And with deliveries of the first vehicle starting in 2028, its not "that much" longer to wait, depending on your point of view. Particularly if the vehicle configuration you're getting is one of the "less prioritized" configurations.

So I get the concern.

I don't know where I stand on EREV vs BEV anymore (currently reserved for harvester). And even more, I'm not sure what I'd do if I "knew" that SSB's were going to come on a specific date. But I doubt Scout would pre-announce a change like that, because then a lot of people would "wait" for the updated product with the SSB, which would potentially destroy their current sales (called the "osbourne effect").

But I do know that I really, really would love to see the battery pack be modular/swap out in the future. And also the harvester generator set. Basically I'd love to not feel locked into things, and know that if after I purchase the vehicle, in 10 years down the line, I can swap from a NMC pack to a SSB pack, or remove the harvester and now have a BEV, something like that.

 

[speedrye]

Don't fall for the hype. SSBs won't increase the range on new vehicles, nor will it provide a meaningful increase to battery longevity. Manufacturers will simply downsize the batteries to hit the ~300 mile range that their research shows to be ideal, and as such, you'll be cycling your SSB battery more, reducing the lifespan, making them closer to the real degradation rate seen in current batteries. Will they be better? Sure, but the resulting vehicles won't be game-changers, dollar per dollar.

As such, I see little impact to the EREV market for the coming decade+.

 

[Logan]

FWIW, I don't think we'll really see double the range with SSB's when they come out. I do think that we'll see range continue to improve though.

I think 300 miles will start to be sort of the minimum size that we'll see in "normal" ev's, with more premium stuff in the ~400-450 mile range (which we can see with Lucid, as well as the recently released BMW and Mercedes models). I do expect that we'll sort of top out around there, as the diminishing returns kick in for carrying around more battery pack.

I do think that where they can, they will start dropping vehicle weight with SSB's. I just don't think they'll do "all" weight reduction with new batteries. I think we'll get some additional range too.

The other game changer other than the range/weight, is the charging behavior though. Even at the same size, those would be worthy gains.

 

[J Alynn]

I'm starting to think you're my long-lost brother! I don't think I've heard anyone else using "lowest common denominator" to describe people, haha. I started using it back in grade school to explain how teachers focused on the dumber kids in class, leaving the smarter ones bored out of our gourds and on our own to live up to our potential.

Yup-and as adults that extrapolates to many more items in life. Ie-hot coffee warning label, etc. I just saw a 5-gallon bucket with drowning warnings for small toddlers. And toddlers can’t read

 

[speedrye]

Yup-and as adults that extrapolates to many more items in life. Ie-hot coffee warning label, etc. I just saw a 5-gallon bucket with drowning warnings for small toddlers. And toddlers can’t read

Darwin vs Lawyers showdown, yet they both seem to win each time.

 

[strider]

the "maintenance" that comes from an ICE vehicle, which all EV enthusiasts always refer to, makes me laugh....... what real maintenance is there? an oil change 2x a year?
But yet they never seem to mention that EV's are heavier vehicles and burn through rubber (especially on bigger vehicles) like crazy, costing almost 2 grand to replace.... vs $200 on 2 oil changes....

No hate here for either, just makes me laugh.

You act as if ICE cars don't need tires.... Oh and don't forgot about brakes. My wife is at 92k miles on her Model S and the pads are not even half worn.

Then there is the latest drama with my 155k mile diesel WK. Soon after replacing all of the fluids the speed sensor inside the transmission decides to crap out. So now we get the drop the pan again. Of course you can't just replace the speed sensor but the entire $970 "conductor plate." Oh and while you're at it you should replace the plug adapter that seals the transmission where the wires plug in. That being said, outside of fluids and filters, brakes, and tires, this is the first major thing to break on this vehicle. It's needed a glow plug or 2 as well....

But yeah, I haven't hit 150k miles on any of my EVs. I sold my Roadster after 11 years and 70k miles. Wife's first Model S at 6 years and 70k miles. Her current Model S is 8 years and 92k miles. My MXP is 4 years and 73k miles. Other than tires, they haven't needed anything (replaced the 12V battery in my Roadster and my wife's first MS also needed a 12V but Tesla acknowledged they were overcharging them in the early days - the new cars use a 16V Li-Ion and so far have not needed to be changed). Windshield wipers, cabin air filters, that kind of stuff, sure, but all that are needed with an ICE.

 

[Schmeegz]

You act as if ICE cars don't need tires.... Oh and don't forgot about brakes. My wife is at 92k miles on her Model S and the pads are not even half worn.

Then there is the latest drama with my 155k mile diesel WK. Soon after replacing all of the fluids the speed sensor inside the transmission decides to crap out. So now we get the drop the pan again. Of course you can't just replace the speed sensor but the entire $970 "conductor plate." Oh and while you're at it you should replace the plug adapter that seals the transmission where the wires plug in. That being said, outside of fluids and filters, brakes, and tires, this is the first major thing to break on this vehicle. It's needed a glow plug or 2 as well....

But yeah, I haven't hit 150k miles on any of my EVs. I sold my Roadster after 11 years and 70k miles. Wife's first Model S at 6 years and 70k miles. Her current Model S is 8 years and 92k miles. My MXP is 4 years and 73k miles. Other than tires, they haven't needed anything (replaced the 12V battery in my Roadster and my wife's first MS also needed a 12V but Tesla acknowledged they were overcharging them in the early days - the new cars use a 16V Li-Ion and so far have not needed to be changed). Windshield wipers, cabin air filters, that kind of stuff, sure, but all that are needed with an ICE.

Not at all! But I’m at 70K miles on my 35’s and only replaced them once….

I follow the Cybertruck quite a bit, and one of the most talked about complaints is tires not even lasting 20K miles.

I’ve also only replaced my brakes 1x.

Again I wasn’t crapping on EV’s at all, just think the rhetoric on ICE maintenance is a bit overblown.

I think there are many pros to EVs, hence I had a reservation for the Cybertruck, and now have one for the Terra, I just personally don’t think the maintenance holds that much water in the debate as others. Just my opinion though, and everyone is entitled to their own.

 

[Hedges1]

With the recent updates from CATL and others, the pivot to sodium tech in the interim, it sure looks like we're 4-5 years away from true commercialization of SSB, and another 5 years rampup from there. As so many have pointed out, even the arrival of SSD or other high density batteries doesn't necessarily mean we're going to see 500+ mile EVs, as everything in vehicle design is a trade-off. For these adventure first platforms and work platforms that from ground-up are designed to take abuse and go anywhere, EREV is going to be the go-to tech for a decade or longer. Physics is undefeated.

 

[Hedges1]

So here's another thought, and honestly it's probably the basis of our next podcast considering the radical difference in range for new EVs like ix3, R2 and yes, the infamous Jeep Recon, all 3 of which take vastly difference engineering directions.

This 350 mile range for the BEV sure seems like the top end of what we should expect for the platform, and the reality for folks who want full capability is going to sting quite a bit. When you go to 35s, mechanical lockers front and rear, steel bumpers, tire carrier, etc.... What do you think that rating is actually going to look like vs an urban style setup with low profile street tires on 22s and none of the added weight and aero hits?

For those that want to really get out there and drive an adventure setup, what's the minimum range you gotta have to stay BEV vs switching over to Harvester?

 

[speedrye]

So here's another thought, and honestly it's probably the basis of our next podcast considering the radical difference in range for new EVs like ix3, R2 and yes, the infamous Jeep Recon, all 3 of which take vastly difference engineering directions.

This 350 mile range for the BEV sure seems like the top end of what we should expect for the platform, and the reality for folks who want full capability is going to sting quite a bit. When you go to 35s, mechanical lockers front and rear, steel bumpers, tire carrier, etc.... What do you think that rating is actually going to look like vs an urban style setup with low profile street tires on 22s and none of the added weight and aero hits?

For those that want to really get out there and drive an adventure setup, what's the minimum range you gotta have to stay BEV vs switching over to Harvester?

Mostly unrelated, but I've been shocked that after lifting my FJ, adding a steel bumper, winch, rock rails, skids, heavy 35" E-range tires, etc, that I get identical gas mileage (corrected for the different tire diameter) to what I was bone stock until I get above 65mph, where it drops more quickly.

You do raise a very valid point though as most vehicles drop very quickly, especially with heavier wheels/tires, but those larger street wheels are also very heavy, so maybe the impact won't be too significant?

 

[Hedges1]

Mostly unrelated, but I've been shocked that after lifting my FJ, adding a steel bumper, winch, rock rails, skids, heavy 35" E-range tires, etc, that I get identical gas mileage (corrected for the different tire diameter) to what I was bone stock until I get above 65mph, where it drops more quickly.

You do raise a very valid point though as most vehicles drop very quickly, especially with heavier wheels/tires, but those larger street wheels are also very heavy, so maybe the impact won't be too significant?

The 21/22 inch wheels on most EVs with low profile and smooth edge treads are always the optimal setup, as they have a pretty decent impact on aero. The smallest we'll see is maybe 19s for the AT/MT setups, as you still gotta clear the massive brakes, but when you add in the offroad treads and more rubber, it's gonna drop quite a bit. Rivian R2 drops 23 miles EPA range on tire choice alone.

 

[speedrye]

The 21/22 inch wheels on most EVs with low profile and smooth edge treads are always the optimal setup, as they have a pretty decent impact on aero. The smallest we'll see is maybe 19s for the AT/MT setups, as you still gotta clear the massive brakes, but when you add in the offroad treads and more rubber, it's gonna drop quite a bit. Rivian R2 drops 23 miles EPA range on tire choice alone.

I can't remember, what was the smallest size wheel Scout was planning? Was it 20", or smaller?

 

[cyure]

I can't remember, what was the smallest size wheel Scout was planning? Was it 20", or smaller?

18”

 

[cyure]

I’m dying to see a 33” tire on an 18” wheel.

 

[R1TVT]

I just saw a 5-gallon bucket with drowning warnings for small toddlers. And toddlers can’t read

That was so YOU didn't put YOUR toddler in the bucket, Jeff! LOL.

 

[Gottesacker]

I’m dying to see a 33” tire on an 18” wheel.

Yea, I’m thinking that’s the sweet spot for me too. The 37s look fantastic on the Terra now… but I don’t want to have to replace them, haha.

 

[cyure]

Yea, I’m thinking that’s the sweet spot for me too. The 37s look fantastic on the Terra now… but I don’t want to have to replace them, haha.

And let’s face it, I plan on owning my Scout for at least 10 years if not longer. When I’m in my late 60s I don’t need to be climbing up into my car.

 

[R1TVT]

Yea, I’m thinking that’s the sweet spot for me too. The 37s look fantastic on the Terra now… but I don’t want to have to replace them, haha.

I think the 37's look way to big and will be WAAY too inefficient. They appear to balloon-out and blow away all the space in the wheel-well (at least thats how they appear to me).

I'm probably in the 33 A/T's camp too.

 

[Hedges1]

I think the 37's look way to big and will be WAAY too inefficient. They appear to balloon-out and blow away all the space in the wheel-well (at least thats how they appear to me).

I'm probably in the 33 A/T's camp too.

35s from Factory will be the max as I'm guessing fitting 37s takes some trimming to stock setup, but no metal work. Scout just wanted to show off and hint that you CAN do it if you want to. I'm planning on 35s for the Terra and would love to have an 18" wheel option!

 

[cyure]

35s from Factory will be the max as I'm guessing fitting 37s takes some trimming to stock setup, but no metal work. Scout just wanted to show off and hint that you CAN do it if you want to. I'm planning on 35s for the Terra and would love to have an 18" wheel option!

Jamie already said in a post on here somewhere (I’m not gonna take the time to hunt it down) that they will not offer 37s from the factory. He has also said 18s will be the smallest wheel available. 35 or 33 whichever
I’m for sure getting 18s.