LOL I said "own" not LOL LOLLEASE.
Ev Delay
- Thread starter mbeadnell
- Start date
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EVs don't make sense to own outright unless you pay cash for one, or you plan to keep it for 10 years and drive it until it's dead...or there are huge subsidies that make them a better choice than an ICE, hybrid, or EREV. With battery and motor tech advancing rapidly, I would much rather give it back and let someone else deal with battery replacement, recycling, etc. Even with an ICE car or hybrid, you can drive well past the tech lifespan of the parts and it's useful for someone as long as it starts and runs. BEVs, no matter how well you care for them, have an expiration date, and when the battery is kaput, the cost to replace it is more than the salvage cost of the car.
I'd also much rather have an EREV for the function I'll use it for. Our BEVs are town cars, not road trippers or overlanders. I want the flexibility to carry my energy in liquid form, in a can or two, so I can have the freedom to go wherever I want when I want and add a hundred miles of range in a couple minutes if I need to.
This is why I’m glad they are making both. What works for one person may not work for another.
It is true there is a LOT of battery anxiety. I am hoping that as the market matures, this will be reduced. Cell prices have dropped like a rock over the last 10 years. Life has improved. As a battery swap market matures with luck this will become more and more of a non-issue. Growing up, we generally put a sub 100k mile life span on vehicles. They were going to need substantial work to keep them going past that in any reliable way. Now we don't bat an eye at vehicles routinely lasting 300k.
Hopefully in 10 years we will be seeing 80% life left in batteries and swaps under 20% (maybe under 10%) of new car value. Plus swaps will hopefully be granting a new benefit - they will improve from the original.
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I really don't want the worse of both worlds with a EREV. Needing to maintain an engine, reduced towing capacity, reduced electrical range. I have trouble believing it would be easier for Scout to start with the EREV. Really 2 major questions. Can Scout sell more BEV's than they can make out of the gate - then there is no real need to delay production of the BEV. If they can not sell them, then going with the Harvester first makes economic sense. Likewise, is there a technological reason to delay BEV production (needing time to get better batteries for instance). I guess there is a third reason, politics. Is a political reversal on credits expected just around the corner? Depending on when production actually starts, I could see waiting for an election.
Hopefully in 10 years we will be seeing 80% life left in batteries and swaps under 20% (maybe under 10%) of new car value. Plus swaps will hopefully be granting a new benefit - they will improve from the original.
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I really don't want the worse of both worlds with a EREV. Needing to maintain an engine, reduced towing capacity, reduced electrical range. I have trouble believing it would be easier for Scout to start with the EREV. Really 2 major questions. Can Scout sell more BEV's than they can make out of the gate - then there is no real need to delay production of the BEV. If they can not sell them, then going with the Harvester first makes economic sense. Likewise, is there a technological reason to delay BEV production (needing time to get better batteries for instance). I guess there is a third reason, politics. Is a political reversal on credits expected just around the corner? Depending on when production actually starts, I could see waiting for an election.
I was with you until waiting for the election. If they are ready to go end of 2027, why would they have an idle factory for a year waiting for an election? Thats the only part I’m not quite seeing, but the rest I’m with you. I started all in on EREV and now am totally onboard with the BEV for all your stated reasons.
And if they did start with the BEV what about some sort of incentive for people to convert to the BEV. Doesn’t even necessarily have to be monetary. Maybe a special edition color that’s only available in the BEV, a BEV launch package that includes some free fun accessories. Something like that.
Well I have good news for you then! EVs have been around for more than 15 years already so there's lots of data available on their longevity. It turns out they last well past "10 years" and the vast majority of 10 year old EVs have well above 80% life left. (https://electricautonomy.ca/ev-supply-chain/batteries/2024-09-18/ev-batteries-longevity-geotab-data/)
I myself bought a used EV that was five years old at the time, it's still going strong with its third owner and is now 14 years old.
Battery swaps aren't really a thing. Owners shouldn't expect to or need to replace EV batteries. For one if the battery does need to be replaced due to defects those will likely appear well within the 8 year/100,000 mile EV battery warranty period. Realistically EV batteries last the life of the vehicle if not longer as the linked article states. Battery replacements aren't really a thing anyone needs to worry about. That's a fossil industry myth that just refuses to die despite the overwhelming evidence that shows it's BS.
Excellent. One less this to worry about. Thanks!!
I can see the midterms next year being a big indicator on where things are headed and that could play a role in SM decision making but at $2B on the factory I just can’t see SM sitting on that and all reality is they are operating in the red right now so I don’t see VWAG wanting that clock ticking any longer than necessary. With BEV being the initial design and being the smaller batch of production I see logic in that starting first to gear up to speed then really start stamping out the EREVs but just my thinking knowing the real estate industry and what I know from my wife’s role in commercial bank lending.
Yeah I agree on the election part. I think as long as people will buy them if they are ready to go in 2027 or early 2028 which I'm sure they will then it won't be an issue. If no one was willing to buy them until after the election that would be another thing but I don't see that happening. I'd be surprised even if there was a change at the election if EV tax credits or anything like that came back in anyways. Although if I buy mine and they come in afterwards I'll be annoyed as that's what happened when I bought my car in 2022 so I missed out on them back then.
This. If you look at costs on ebay, whole EV batteries are incredibly cheap compared with the retail cost of batteries. And it’s because there’s no swap market for them—there’s no demand. They’re so cheap that buying them, pulling all the cells out and rearranging them into 48V, 3 kAh whole-home batteries is almost worth the effort.
Replacement EV batteries are far from plug-and-play, DIY swap em in your garage replacement items. Sure, you can buy cells and packs and maybe an entire unit, but good luck swapping out any of those things in your EV if you need to. This is why full battery replacements are still five-figure costs.
Someday, recycling will be common, design-for-maintainability/serviceability will be table stakes, and the built in ability to upgrade battery or motor tech will be standard, maybe even with aftermarket options. But none of those things are common today - most EV service centers can't do it themselves now, vehicles have to be shipped to specially-configured locations.
When my first Polestar 2 got totaled, the battery pack was undamaged except for the auto main bus cutoff that got triggered - the battery pack was fine. I called COPART to see what they would do with it and they said nothing - it will get junked because there are no recycling or refurbishment centers that could handle it. The car had less than 3,500 miles on it.
I don't think Scout will let a factory sit idle. I hope Scout is independent enough that VW group can not tell them to delay production because it might hurt sales of other VW group products. Scout will probably need quite a few months of production to fill existing EREV orders. I think factors in the supply chain will probably be a bigger influence (will the EREV be ready for production when the factory is finished, will the supply chain be in place to keep pace with the production for either model). But I can imagine that speculation could effect market demand and could effect Scouts production decisions.
That said, I don't think any speculation of a future credit will effect my decision making and I don't think any speculation of future battery improvements will either (I think that is further down the road - next decade sometimes. It will first need to exist, then go into mass production, then trickle down from limited production vehicles first).
That said, I don't think any speculation of a future credit will effect my decision making and I don't think any speculation of future battery improvements will either (I think that is further down the road - next decade sometimes. It will first need to exist, then go into mass production, then trickle down from limited production vehicles first).
As was mentioned earlier, EV battery recycling hasn't really been a "thing" yet. Most EV batteries simply have not been in deployment long enough to even be considered for recycling, or reached their end-of-life and are still in service. This is a growing sector, and EV battery recycling companies are expected to grow at a CAGR of 9%. Probably some decent investment opportunities to get in on (early), or maybe there's an index to follow.
While moving battery packs from car to car is not common (since you are looking at 20+ year EV battery life spans), recycling all types of batteries from all types of applications (and using them for energy storage for example in their afterlife) is quite legitimate, which everyone should like.
Here's a sampling of some interesting companies to watch:
www.redwoodmaterials.com
www.enersys.com
www.exide.com
www.batteryrecyclersofamerica.com
And an article on the subject of recycling for your reading pleasure:
electrek.co
And a handy graphic on the growth that is expected in this market:
Might be time to start paying attention to this segment, because nobody stops the hands of time.
While moving battery packs from car to car is not common (since you are looking at 20+ year EV battery life spans), recycling all types of batteries from all types of applications (and using them for energy storage for example in their afterlife) is quite legitimate, which everyone should like.
Here's a sampling of some interesting companies to watch:
Redwood Materials | Energy Storage & Battery Recycling
Redwood is building a domestic battery supply chain to deploy low-cost storage and recycle lithium-ion batteries to recover their critical minerals.
EnerSys | Global Leader in Stored Energy & Power Solutions
Discover EnerSys, the global leader in stored energy solutions, delivering innovative batteries, chargers, and power systems for industrial and mission-critical applications.
www.enersys.com
exide.com
www.exide.com
Energy Storage Systems • Battery Recyclers of America
Energy Storage We Proudly Serve
www.batteryrecyclersofamerica.com
And an article on the subject of recycling for your reading pleasure:
Forget the myths: EV batteries are now more than 99% recyclable
Those people who want you to believe mining for EV batteries is as dirty as drilling for oil? They don't want you to know about recycling.
electrek.co
And a handy graphic on the growth that is expected in this market:
Might be time to start paying attention to this segment, because nobody stops the hands of time.
As was mentioned earlier, EV battery recycling hasn't really been a "thing" yet. Most EV batteries simply have not been in deployment long enough to even be considered for recycling, or reached their end-of-life and are still in service. This is a growing sector, and EV battery recycling companies are expected to grow at a CAGR of 9%. Probably some decent investment opportunities to get in on (early), or maybe there's an index to follow.
While moving battery packs from car to car is not common (since you are looking at 20+ year EV battery life spans), recycling all types of batteries from all types of applications (and using them for energy storage for example in their afterlife) is quite legitimate, which everyone should like.
Here's a sampling of some interesting companies to watch:
Redwood Materials | Energy Storage & Battery Recycling
Redwood is building a domestic battery supply chain to deploy low-cost storage and recycle lithium-ion batteries to recover their critical minerals.EnerSys | Global Leader in Stored Energy & Power Solutions
Discover EnerSys, the global leader in stored energy solutions, delivering innovative batteries, chargers, and power systems for industrial and mission-critical applications.exide.com
Energy Storage Systems • Battery Recyclers of America
Energy Storage We Proudly Serve
And an article on the subject of recycling for your reading pleasure:
Forget the myths: EV batteries are now more than 99% recyclable
Those people who want you to believe mining for EV batteries is as dirty as drilling for oil? They don't want you to know about recycling.
And a handy graphic on the growth that is expected in this market:
View attachment 10979
Might be time to start paying attention to this segment, because nobody stops the hands of time.
Exactly. There’s no market for it because there’s no need for it.
And battery replacement in vehicles also isn’t a market because it’s not a thing that has to happen. It’s like telling a potential customer that they shouldn’t buy a new F-150 because the 5.0L V8 in it will cost almost $20k-$30k to replace. Yeah, okay, but approximately nobody actually has to ever do that.
But that thought is out there with all the EV fear. I had many of those misconceptions before I was on this forum. So did my husband. I really appreciate all of you dispelling these myths over and over and over again.
Seeing more articles about this online from slightly more credible websites. Maybe @Jamie@ScoutMotors can provide clarification when the time comes. I like all electric personally
It seems I’ve read some articles recently about repurposing these batteries into home use for energy backup. Is there any validity to this idea?
Yes.
BatteryEVO does this commercially. They buy cast-offs from testing, either at the battery factory or the EV factory, get rid of the one or two cells that are bad, reconfigure them as 12V, 24V, 48V, or 96V multi-purpose, RV, and whole-home batteries, and sell them for a relatively low price.
Someone with a little bit of EE experience and enough gumption and time can buy an EV battery from eBay, reconfigure the cells, and turn the battery into a whole home backup. This works on batteries that aren’t badly damaged or poorly engineered. For example, it’s really difficult to pull cells out of the newer brand-T battery packs because they fill the packs with some kind of solid foam and it’s a huge mess to get to the cells.
Someone who doesn’t want to spend the time, but can spend the money can have a 400+ V DC inverter installed. That can invert the DC power directly from the battery to AC for the home. But that’s not cheap. There’s also some engineering work to be done to properly connect the leads to the battery since there are safety features on the battery that may not be necessary if it’s not in a moving vehicle.
Because of the low power draw on a home, there’s no need for major cooling concerns with conversion from thermally-managed EV batteries to home batteries unless the location of the home battery is where it can get below freezing when you would want to charge the battery. In that case, you’d need to have some kind of thermal management to warm the cells so they’re not damaged.
Yes but it's very much a DIY thing.
The overwhelming majority of EV batteries ever made are still being used in the vehicles they were made for. Of course vehicles get in wrecks etc so some batteries are making their way to recycling facilities as others have mentioned, but almost every other pack is still in the car it was built for.
Some enterprising people have been able to salvage EV battery packs from scrap yards and use them for other purposes but you need to know a lot about electronics and electricity to be able to do such things safely. YouTuber Jerry Rig Everything converted an old HMMVW to electric using salvaged Tesla batteries, others like YouTuber Jehu Garcia have built homemade Powerwalls for whole home electricity backup using a variety of different batteries from cars, e-bike, and whatever he can find cheaply. If you're interested in dabbling in this I'd recommend starting with his videos. It's a pretty cool space to tinker and explore but it's not for the untechnical.
So yes, you can absolutely repurpose EV batteries for home energy backup. There are even companies out there that do it commercially taking batteries from older EVs like the original Leaf, packaging them into a shipping container and selling them as building backup systems. The main limitation for doing this is the same as for the would-be battery recycling companies - feedstock. There are so few EV batteries floating around out there because contrary to what seems to be a widely held belief. It turns out EV batteries tend to last quite a long time in their intended application and those cars are all still on the road.
If you think about it, mass produced EVs have been around for over 15 years now. If their batteries did need replacement after ten years or whatever then the market SHOULD now be flooded with dead EV batteries. But it isn't - because that's not a thing. The reality is they're designed to last the life of the vehicle which is at least 15 to 20 years, and will likely last much longer than that before the vehicle itself is scrapped. Only then will those packs become available for second-life applications. The packs you can buy right now are usually from crashed vehicles.
Exactly this.
Every full-pack ebay battery I’ve investigated has some kind of damage to its outer casing because of the crash the vehicle was involved in. I’ve never heard of anyone buying a new EV battery at retail prices. The prices on manufacturer parts supply sites are fictional. The batteries are under warranty and the manufacturer has created a “value” for those batteries that reflects neither supply nor demand—it’s simply an insurance scam. In the rare instance when a vehicle does need a battery replacement under warranty, the manufacturer sends the battery to the dealer and then claims the “cost" on its insurance claim for the warranty repair. Their claimed prices are significantly higher than the wholesale cost of the cells, casing, etc. of the battery pack. But because there’s no market, there’s no way to verify the value of those batteries.
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