Interesting bit of research concerning the future of ICE infrastructure...

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SpaceEVDriver

Scout Community Veteran
Oct 26, 2024
697
2,041
Arizona
Gas cars are disappearing, and this data shows it's happening before most people realize.

There’ll be fewer gas-powered cars on the road in California next year than this year. And every year after that. In Colorado and Washington State, that tipping point occurs in 2026.
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The implications to this hidden trend are wild. Revenue from gasoline sales and oil changes will begin to decline in several states in the next year or two.

For gas car drivers and owners, this shift means the infrastructure around their vehicles will start changing dramatically. Gas stations will become less profitable and may begin closing, especially in states that hit peak gas car earliest. Already, California has more EV charging stations than gas stations, signaling what's ahead. Maintenance networks for gas cars may shrink as demand falls, potentially making repairs more expensive and harder to find. Used gas car values could also decline faster than expected as buyers increasingly prefer EVs, while the resale market shifts toward electric vehicles. Gas car owners may find themselves driving an increasingly obsolete technology sooner than they anticipated.
 
In other parts of the world it is harder to find gas stations than finding charging stations. In the US today we are still putting multiple gas station on every corner. Hopefully all those US gas station can be converted to EV stations.
If I had f-u money, I’d be buying struggling corner gas stations in lower-income neighborhoods, do the UST remediation, install underground transformers in their place, including ground-source heat pump cooling; power them at least partially with solar over the building and pump cover structure, and install charging stations in the place of the pumps above ground. Then I’d franchise/sell/lease them back to the previous owner (if a local person) to keep the windshield washer tubs clean and full, and encourage locals to buy used EVs. Many of our local corner gas stations have several parking spaces that could be used for L2 charging as well.
 
I bet if you pulled this map for horse to automobile adoption, it would look very similar. I've actually seen this pattern play out in the tech world when we started migrating customers from on-prem equipment to cloud about 10 years ago. Nothing right or wrong about it, just how this country adopts new tech I guess.

As a Californian I will say we've already hit peak gas so it makes sense that the number of ICE vehicles on the road would peak slowly thereafter. FWIW last year 40% of new vehicle registrations in San Jose were EVs which is the highest in the country.
 
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I bet if you pulled this map for hose to automobile adoption, it would look very similar. I've actually seen this pattern play out in the tech world when we started migrating customers from on-prem equipment to cloud about 10 years ago. Nothing right or wrong about it, just how this country adopts new tech I guess.

As a Californian I will say we've already hit peak gas so it makes sense that the number of ICE vehicles on the road would peak slowly thereafter. FWIW last year 40% of new vehicle registrations in San Jose were EVs which is the highest in the country.
That’s awesome to see people changing their mindsets about EV’s. Despite political back pedaling the buying public is seeing the benefits of Electric
 
The only advancements will be in how we produce it.
This—to me—is one of the things that’s so neat about EVs. As the technology for making electricity improves and becomes more environmentally friendly, so do the vehicles that use it.

An ICE vehicle built today will never become any cleaner or less harmful for the environment—it’s a dead-end.

An EV built today, even if the majority of its electricity is generated from natural gas today could become a lot cleaner just by the nature of using new sources of electricity in ten years (solar, wind, nuclear, zero-point, anti-matter, whatever 😉 ).

For example, until recently, my EVs were being charged by the grid when we’re home. I don’t know the particular mix of renewables vs fossil fuels the power company uses, but I do know it’s not 100% renewable. Now my EVs are charged from solar on my roof, so I know that, at least for local use, my EVs are close to 100% renewable. Sometimes on cloudy days the grid still pushes into the equation, but it’s a pretty small percentage.
 
This—to me—is one of the things that’s so neat about EVs. As the technology for making electricity improves and becomes more environmentally friendly, so do the vehicles that use it.

An ICE vehicle built today will never become any cleaner or less harmful for the environment—it’s a dead-end.

An EV built today, even if the majority of its electricity is generated from natural gas today could become a lot cleaner just by the nature of using new sources of electricity in ten years (solar, wind, nuclear, zero-point, anti-matter, whatever 😉 ).

For example, until recently, my EVs were being charged by the grid when we’re home. I don’t know the particular mix of renewables vs fossil fuels the power company uses, but I do know it’s not 100% renewable. Now my EVs are charged from solar on my roof, so I know that, at least for local use, my EVs are close to 100% renewable. Sometimes on cloudy days the grid still pushes into the equation, but it’s a pretty small percentage.
Well said. Especially the "anti-matter" part :ROFLMAO: Seriously though we too have 100% Solar running our home with future-proofed capacity for the EVs we currently do not own. Our 2027 Scout Traveler EV will be our first.
 
This—to me—is one of the things that’s so neat about EVs. As the technology for making electricity improves and becomes more environmentally friendly, so do the vehicles that use it.

An ICE vehicle built today will never become any cleaner or less harmful for the environment—it’s a dead-end.

An EV built today, even if the majority of its electricity is generated from natural gas today could become a lot cleaner just by the nature of using new sources of electricity in ten years (solar, wind, nuclear, zero-point, anti-matter, whatever 😉 ).

For example, until recently, my EVs were being charged by the grid when we’re home. I don’t know the particular mix of renewables vs fossil fuels the power company uses, but I do know it’s not 100% renewable. Now my EVs are charged from solar on my roof, so I know that, at least for local use, my EVs are close to 100% renewable. Sometimes on cloudy days the grid still pushes into the equation, but it’s a pretty small percentage.
If only you could harness the power of the uranium in your home. We need to work with Tony Stark to solve these issues
 
You have high Radon isotopes at your location. 😜
That we do. Hmmmm-how to harness that? Side note-having spent 30 years now in the building industry I always chuckle at how many homeowners finish their basements but don’t bother installing an active radon system. Often wonder in central PA if basement dweller’s lives are shortened due to radon?
 
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That we do. Hmmmm-how to harness that? Side note-having spent 30 years now in the building industry I always chuckle at how many homeowners finish their basements but don’t bother installing an active radon system. Often wonder in central PA if basement dweller’s lives are shortened due to radon?
Our previous house we built in 1996 had a passive radon system that after a few years I turned into an active one. Now living in Florida there is no such thing as a basement. Everything is sealed poured slab or stilts or both. However, I still use a Radon detector.
 
Our previous house we built in 1996 had a passive radon system that after a few years I turned into an active one. Now living in Florida there is no such thing as a basement. Everything is sealed poured slab or stilts or both.
That does simplify. The levels in PA are fairly high due to the limestone and other earth crust materials. I built 10 years ago and didn’t even do a higher ceiling. But we did a 20x20 second floor game room (we call it our “tree house” so that we wouldn’t have to finish basement-and we can count it as an addition bedroom since it has a closet so we actually get credit for the SF here in PA.