3 Years

[ohvrider]

Since the Scout's are expected to ship late 2027, we have a full 3 years almost til we see one. In the EV world 3 years is like 10 years for ICE cars, so goals of today will be obsolete by then.

Some things I'd expect to move a lot in 3 years:

• Range Average EV's are 280 to 300 now, so 350 sounds good but in 2027 I'd expect 400+ common and a few 600ish
• Charge speed, I'd expect it to be 1/2 of what it is today.
• Batteries, I'd expect the cost to be 1/2 of less of today as more companies get into the battery building business
• Features: I'd expect more luxury feature in low to mid price cars due to the invasion of Chinese cars into US market

I'm sure there is a lot more, but you get the idea, you need to keep one eye on the competition and make sure improvements are made to stay up with what they are doing. I'm sure they are scrambling ATM to sync up with what Scout is doing as well.

 

[Jrgunn5150]

I'm an engineer, worked in automotive all my life, tier 1's, Rivian for a bit, a stint consulting at Lordstown...

In order to kick off tools, hard steel, and make production in Q1 2027, they're, at the absolute max, 12 months from design freeze on everything. And sooner on more difficult components.

Yes, the space constantly evolves, but at some point, you have to make the best compromise, lock it in, kick off suppliers, and start making a product.

And when it hits market, maybe a year later, something better comes along that kicked off a year after your thing, that's automotive. You can't constantly change to every new shiny thing, you'll never make a product.

But many suppliers should have been sourced already by now, the remainder should be awarded in the next 6 months, compressed timing means increased costs, and at some point, suppliers start communicating, in order to hit this or that milestone, I need X, Y, and Z by this date, or day for day slip.

 

[J Alynn]

Since the Scout's are expected to ship late 2027, we have a full 3 years almost til we see one. In the EV world 3 years is like 10 years for ICE cars, so goals of today will be obsolete by then.

Some things I'd expect to move a lot in 3 years:

• Range Average EV's are 280 to 300 now, so 350 sounds good but in 2027 I'd expect 400+ common and a few 600ish
• Charge speed, I'd expect it to be 1/2 of what it is today.
• Batteries, I'd expect the cost to be 1/2 of less of today as more companies get into the battery building business
• Features: I'd expect more luxury feature in low to mid price cars due to the invasion of Chinese cars into US market

I'm sure there is a lot more, but you get the idea, you need to keep one eye on the competition and make sure improvements are made to stay up with what they are doing. I'm sure they are scrambling ATM to sync up with what Scout is doing as well.

I’m guessing ranges posted are conservative guesses somewhere between today’s available ranges and anticipated ranges in 2-3 years. Based on CES videos I’d guess production will start very early ‘27 with some deliveries in late Q1 or early Q2-UNLESS there is tech coming that they know about and want to try and squeeze in to the launch vehicles and gen 1’s

 

[BD1]

I’m guessing ranges posted are conservative guesses somewhere between today’s available ranges and anticipated ranges in 2-3 years. Based on CES videos I’d guess production will start very early ‘27 with some deliveries in late Q1 or early Q2-UNLESS there is tech coming that they know about and want to try and squeeze in to the launch vehicles and gen 1’s

I thought I heard late 2027 from one of the scout UX people in the recent ces videos

 

[Chaz26]

I’m guessing ranges posted are conservative guesses somewhere between today’s available ranges and anticipated ranges in 2-3 years. Based on CES videos I’d guess production will start very early ‘27 with some deliveries in late Q1 or early Q2-UNLESS there is tech coming that they know about and want to try and squeeze in to the launch vehicles and gen 1’s

I think they'll just do a limited number of deliveries at the end of 2027 to meet the goal of 2027. I have a feeling that most of us will be getting our Scout in 2028 but that's just my thought.

 

[Jrgunn5150]

I think they'll just do a limited number of deliveries at the end of 2027 to meet the goal of 2027. I have a feeling that most of us will be getting our Scout in 2028 but that's just my thought.

I'd count on that at the earliest.

Cynical me, 15 years in automotive, says production beginning even Q4 of 27 is optimistic in reality.

I wish and hope for the best, but I wouldn't bet any money on it.

 

[apex96]

I thought I heard late 2027 from one of the scout UX people in the recent ces videos

You did, Nicole Johnson of the UX team mentioned that they planned to begin deliveries late 27 early 28 so I'm thinking Q4 2027 at the earliest but anticipate possibly delays to push deliveries to Q1 2028

 

[J Alynn]

The CES interview with NEVO and Dwayne (interiors) stated production beginning of ‘27. Just FYI. I watched back through to verify I heard it correctly

 

[Mirinjesse]

The comment from Nicole and and/Dwayne all points to production starting early ‘27, with goal of into delivery to start end ‘27 / early ‘28.

Both of which are best case scenario. I will see these concepts are appear much more than typical concepts, so could be good sign for us early preorders being able to get deliveries by end of ‘27.

 

[ohvrider]

I thought I heard late 2027 from one of the scout UX people in the recent ces videos

I heard late 27 as well. I was thinking Nov/Dec and all recent cars have had multiple delays so I would not be surprised if it slips into 28.

 

[Logan]

Adding some data to things, because thats my jam.

Average EV range (in the USA at least):

https://insideevs.com/news/746799/average-ev-range/

Personally, I'm not thinking the Average EV for sale in the US will be 350-400 miles of range by 2027-2028. We might get something of a step change with solid state batteries, but, I imagine that will roll out slowly/in small quantities at first, so it might not move the needle as much as you'd expect.

Battery price projections:

https://insideevs.com/news/737116/battery-prices-ev-study-2026/

Obviously, this image is just projections, and anything could happen. Battery prices will continue to drop, but not sure we'll see a halving of it from now until 2027-2028.

I'm an engineer, worked in automotive all my life, tier 1's, Rivian for a bit, a stint consulting at Lordstown...

In order to kick off tools, hard steel, and make production in Q1 2027, they're, at the absolute max, 12 months from design freeze on everything. And sooner on more difficult components.

Yes, the space constantly evolves, but at some point, you have to make the best compromise, lock it in, kick off suppliers, and start making a product.

And when it hits market, maybe a year later, something better comes along that kicked off a year after your thing, that's automotive. You can't constantly change to every new shiny thing, you'll never make a product.

But many suppliers should have been sourced already by now, the remainder should be awarded in the next 6 months, compressed timing means increased costs, and at some point, suppliers start communicating, in order to hit this or that milestone, I need X, Y, and Z by this date, or day for day slip.

This is great insight, thank you. So that means we might start getting details on how things work in the next year or so .

So all of our suggestions will really make a difference for the next year or so. Get those suggestions in .

 

[Mousehunter]

I guess it has been hinted at - but how long is the approval process to sell a new design in the US? I am assuming that at at least some of the crash testing and emissions (harvester) needs to be on a production line vehicle.

But yes, any sell by date nearly 3 years in advance is something between speculation and guesswork. All too often they come out a few years after originally projected, come out different, or never come to maturity.

 

[Jrgunn5150]

This is great insight, thank you. So that means we might start getting details on how things work in the next year or so .

So all of our suggestions will really make a difference for the next year or so. Get those suggestions in .

100%, details will be much more firm this time next year, everything should be locked.

I guess it has been hinted at - but how long is the approval process to sell a new design in the US? I am assuming that at at least some of the crash testing and emissions (harvester) needs to be on a production line vehicle.

But yes, any sell by date nearly 3 years in advance is something between speculation and guesswork. All too often they come out a few years after originally projected, come out different, or never come to maturity.

Alot of the testing is done at the supplier/component level.

It's not like there's a government agency of cars and you have to approach them with car and get car approved for sale.

It's more like there's dozens of various specifications that have to be met, and most of that is pushed down to the suppliers, flammability, conflict minerals, thermal, abrasion, etc etc etc.

Which is, again, a potential challenge that makes the timing optimisitic. Right now I have a supplier, for a completely off topic product, failing a paint test. They've been failing since September, there's no reason they should be failing, we're well into timing conflicts and schedule slip. These things happen.

Now, imagine that potential, across the eleventy million components that make up a car.

 

[shutthefrontdoor]

So definitely won't see a QS semi-solid state battery at launch and if it requires re-working some of the basics to accommodate, likely not in the 2nd year either as I'd imagine they will want to concentrate on driving success and fine tuning production of the launch vehicles till a refresh year and that's likely a minimum 4 more years so could be 2032-ish before we see that. Understandable but very disheartening if true. This makes it a hard sell for me as I'm committed to my next EV being SS but we'll see how it and the marketplace develop.

 

[Mirinjesse]

So definitely won't see a QS semi-solid state battery at launch and if it requires re-working some of the basics to accommodate, likely not in the 2nd year either as I'd imagine they will want to concentrate on driving success and fine tuning production of the launch vehicles till a refresh year and that's likely a minimum 4 more years so could be 2032-ish before we see that. Understandable but very disheartening if true. This makes it a hard sell for me as I'm committed to my next EV being SS but we'll see how it and the marketplace develop.

SS design and research is only just starting. You won’t see maximum capabilities and implementation of the technology for at least 5 years, be it scout or others. So I am not sure it’s actually worthwhile to wait for SS versus buying into current gen technology.