I teach a couple of workshops about changing cultural values within a workplace or team.
There’s a model for change adoption that seems to be fairly robust across many different contexts. One of its names is the “Diffusion of Ideas.” It’s been around a long time, and one popular iteration of it that’s relevant here is Rogers’ Innovation Model.
This graph is read from left to right as a timeline.
First the innovators create and share something with other innovators. It takes some time, but not a lot of time.
Then the Early adopters hear about it. They’re a much larger group than the Innovators, and it takes a little bit more time for them to adopt the new idea/technology.
Then we get to the Early Majority. There are almost three times as many of them as there are Early Adopters. And it takes even more time for them to buy into the idea/technology.
Eventually the Late Majority adopts.
You can see a sharp increase in the total market share during the time that the Early and Late Majority adopt.
The Laggards take a long, long time to adopt.
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You can see this with smart (and earlier cell) phones. At the beginning, it was just a few people who owned a smart phone. Then their friends and colleagues who were curious but not innovators got to see the phone, got to play with the phone, got to feel a little envious of the phone. Those Early Adopters began getting smart phones and showing them to their friends and family and colleagues. The idea of a small computer in your pocket started to infiltrate into the rest of the world.
Now a huge proportion (but not 100%) of the population in the US have smart phones.
And this was a product with positive press for most of the adoption life cycle.
It’ll go the same way with EVs.
We were some of the very first people to own a hybrid. Many of our friends and family and colleagues were very skeptical of them until they got to ride in it, got to watch it not fail, not cost us a lot of money, etc. Ten or fifteen years ago, many of the people who are considering the Harvester or RAM EREV wouldn’t have considered a hybrid.
Now hybrids are the fastest growing segment of new and used vehicle sales. And BEVs, while their accelerating growth has slowed, their sales are still climbing (despite the media trying to stop that from happening).
If you look at when hybrids came into the market (around 2001) to today, that’s about 25 years. And we’re in the Late Majority of people adopting hybrids.
The first iPhone was announced in 2007. That’s about 20 years ago.
There’s really not much difference between the adoption rates of hybrids and smart phones. Yes, the phones move faster. But they’re also significantly cheaper! And there was a concerted campaign against hybrids by various FUDers in the media.
The adoption for BEVs is continuing apace, despite the road blocks being thrown up. We are somewhere between the end of the Early Adopters and shifting into the Early Majority with BEVs now. Yes, if the media weren’t so FUDdy, we’d probably see faster adoption. But… /shrug. It’s what happens in a lot of things.