Don't let the Scout become a status symbol; why $60k misses the point of the Revival

[tomgillotti]

The problem that I have with your posts is that you have chosen to focus your ire on this one corner of industry while completely ignoring history and the basic cause and effect of economics. Economies go through long term debt cycles. They always have and they always will, because people. I'm going to assume you are a Boomer. You were lucky to be born when you were. Millennials and Zoomers, as a cohort, literally cannot do what you did, no matter how hard they try (it is not because they are lazy as so many Boomers love to accuse). The cost of everything as a percentage of income is way higher than when you were younger. When you were a kid, people could put themselves through college by spinning pizzas. That is impossible now. Your parents (and likely you as well) could buy a house and raise a family on a single income. That is impossible now.

The US government embarked on structural (ie permanent) deficit spending starting in the 1980s. That extra, unearned, money went into the pockets of the private sector (this is an accounting fact). Your income was subsidized (increased) by debt that you will never pay back. Also, interest rates went down for 40 years. This allowed companies (and people) to borrow more and more money with the same payment. This increased prosperity (spending) at the time with promises to pay it back sometime in the future. Well, the future is now. The US govt is entering the endgame that afflicts all empires. Military spending and other entitlements are crowding out productive spending. The government has no choice but to print money to cover the shortfall. This results in the value of the currency falling.

You continue to look at unaffordability as a price problem when in fact it is a currency/debt problem. Prices for things have not gone UP, the value of the dollar has gone DOWN. Wages have not kept up as we have been continuously outsourcing jobs for decades. Look at this chart of Labor vs Capital's share of Gross Domestic Income:

View attachment 13934

Look at where the lines were when you were working and look at where they are now. And if AI actually works like they say it does, those lines will get even further apart.

Are you personally responsible for where we are today? Of course not. You were born when you were born and you had no control over that. We must play the hand that we're dealt societally and genetically. I don't hold you personally responsible and I'm actually glad that you feel some anguish for what the later generations are going through. But when you come in here and state that one tiny car company that is billions in debt can somehow undue decades of bad economic choices, it says to me that you do not have a firm grasp on the overall situation.

The bottom line is that we have to get those lines back together. That can be done by raising the blue line (increasing wages) or lowering the red line (decreasing the value of financial assets). You can guess where the various generations/classes land on those different options. That picture also explains why we have Trump and Mamdani. The next few years will be interesting. But trying to stop what's happening is like trying to stop a hurricane. All you can do is try to protect yourself and your family until it passes and then rebuild. As the parent of 2 teenage children (one Zoomer and one Alpha), I am glad that I will be able to weather the storm for them and they will be able to come out the other side - into a world that needs them to rebuild it and all of the opportunities that entails. So my message is doom for the next 7-8 years, then hope.

I appreciate the deep dive into macroeconomic history and fiat currency, but your entire essay rests on a single, fatal assumption.

I am 41 years old. I am an elder Millennial.

You confidently stated that my financial path—saving a massive portion of my income on an enlisted military salary and investing in real estate—is "literally impossible" for Millennials because we "cannot do what you did, no matter how hard they try."

Yet, I navigated the exact same economic landscape, housing market, and inflation charts you just posted. The ability to live below your means isn't a generational privilege; it's a choice. It required immense discipline, not "Boomer luck."

Blaming macroeconomic debt cycles to justify the normalization of $80,000 depreciating assets is exactly the kind of financial fatalism that keeps people broke. If the vehicle market has outpaced wages, the solution isn't to accept it as an inevitable symptom of the US debt cycle; the solution is to simply refuse to finance an $80,000 truck.

The math works the same regardless of what year you were born.

 

[strider]

I stand corrected. My essay does not rest on your generational age, it rests on mathematics and history. The fact that you were able to "make it" just proves that you are an exceptional person. Your experience is not the norm for your generation and it is even worse for Gen Z.

I'm not normalizing anything. I am trying to help people understand what is happening to their currency and why they are losing purchasing power. Here's a chart of US Government deficits as a percentage of GDP.

Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] as Percent of Gross Domestic Product

Graph and download economic data for Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] as Percent of Gross Domestic Product (FYFSDFYGDP) from 1930 to 2023 about budget, federal, percent, GDP, and USA.

fred.stlouisfed.org

That graph only goes through 2023 (next update is 3/27/26). The right side (since 2000) is a logarithmic function in that it is accelerating. Deficits will continue to increase which will continue to cause ever more inflation. If you add money to an economy without increasing production, prices go up. This is 6th grade math. We didn't feel it in the beginning because the percentages were smaller but the nature of exponential functions is that they accelerate in the end. We are in that acceleration phase.

So then coming back to the beginning, after 22 pages, what is the point of this thread? Scout has chosen to build the truck they have shown. No matter how much you complain, they cannot make it cheaper without changing the truck (less power, lower range, smaller, more spartan interior, etc.). I mean, I wish yachts were cheaper. By your logic if I just go onto an internet forum and complain then they'll lower the price so I'll be able to afford one. Now has Scout chosen the wrong market? Maybe that's your point and maybe you're right. We will see. All you can do is vote with your wallet. If enough people change their buying habits, the manufacturers will change their product mix - it's how markets work.

If you want a cheaper truck, buy a Slate, R2, new Ford truck, or if you must have a Scout, you will need to wait for the next generation of smaller vehicles. If you want the truck that Scout is building, you will need to pay $65k. As I said earlier, if you had put that $45k in gold a couple years back, the price has not moved. I do not know any other way to explain what is happening to your currency than that. But keep raging into the void......

 

[smc2023]

Just because I like random information - I looked up the debut of the TRD Pro which was about 10 years ago, released with a starting price around $41,385. Now days starting price is $72510. That's a 75% increase in price over that time period. Not sure this changes any of the previous arguments for or against @tomgillotti main discussion points. Not even sure what my point is of sharing it, other than I think it's a bit unfair to Scout Motors that "this" period in time is their starting point. One has to admit, there are many market forces completely out of their control, so I assume they'll set the price that is in line with every other manufacturer, in the sense that they have to pay their bills, their employees and they have to be profitable or a lot of us might be owning an Edsel, and nobody wants that.

 

[tomgillotti]

Just because I like random information - I looked up the debut of the TRD Pro which was about 10 years ago, released with a starting price around $41,385. Now days starting price is $72510. That's a 75% increase in price over that time period. Not sure this changes any of the previous arguments for or against @tomgillotti main discussion points. Not even sure what my point is of sharing it, other than I think it's a bit unfair to Scout Motors that "this" period in time is their starting point. One has to admit, there are many market forces completely out of their control, so I assume they'll set the price that is in line with every other manufacturer, in the sense that they have to pay their bills, their employees and they have to be profitable or a lot of us might be owning an Edsel, and nobody wants that.

That is a totally fair point on the TRD Pro data. A 75% price jump over a decade is wild, and it perfectly illustrates the macroeconomic headwinds the entire industry is dealing with right now. You are absolutely right that it is a brutal environment for Scout to launch in. Despite all my debates in this thread about where the entry price needs to be, I agree with you—none of us want to see them fail or become a modern-day Edsel (had to Google it... Wow, that's crazy how relatable it is to this discussion). We all want them to build a profitable, sustainable company.

Honestly, stepping away from the heavy economic arguments for a second... I checked my mail today and received the promotional mailer Scout sent out to reservation holders. I'm sure it's already been thoroughly dissected on the forum while I was away, but holding it really brought the excitement back to the surface.

Pricing debates aside, I am incredibly pumped for this vehicle. I'll even admit that I took the fold-out poster from the mailer and put it straight up on my wall. It completely clashes with the aesthetic of my house, but I don't even care. It’s just a beautifully designed machine.

At the end of the day, regardless of where we all stand on the pricing strategy, I think that's why we are all still in this thread. We just really want to see this truck become a reality.